America unleashed

What does a world look like in which American power reigns supreme?

Last updated: 1/29/2025

Last week, US President Donald Trump surprised everyone with his comments about the Ukraine war. Rather than dropping support for Ukraine, Trump issued a warning to their opponent. “Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE.” Trump went on to threaten sanctions and tariffs, saying “we can do it the easy way, or the hard way.” One day later, Trump demanded that OPEC lower prices to undercut Russia’s revenues from oil sales financing the war. After multiple years of speculation that Trump would force Ukraine to accept Putin’s terms—cession of territory along the line of control, demilitarization, and permanent neutrality—Trump definitively rejected that approach on the second full day of his second term.

Is Trump turning into a liberal internationalist? Not likely. Trump believes, correctly, that America is the most powerful country in the international system. He also believes other countries should heed its wishes or face the consequences. Some analysts believe Russia must conclude the war in the first half of 2025 or risk a reversal of its fortunes. The economy is faltering and conscription cliffs later in the year will reduce Russia’s warfighting capacity. Trump smells blood. America is a more powerful country than Russia and wants the war to end on its terms. And if Russia doesn’t comply, America will inflict pain. The same goes for China and its obstinate refusal to consider any steps that might mollify concerns about its challenge to American preeminence.

When you put this ultimatum in the context of American policy not just over the past week, but past eight years, it’s all consistent. America is done with the liberal international order. It worked very well for a long time, but at some point in the 2010s the majority of the American public decided it stopped being worth it.

This will be a surprising new paradigm for the vast majority of people alive today. There is a common belief in much of the world that America has the same motivations as China and Russia but hides them better behind the language of liberal idealism. If that’s true, then why is everyone so shocked about Trump’s interests in acquiring Greenland, re-taking the Panama Canal, and annexing Canada? The secret is that there never really was a liberal international order the way non-realist schools of international relations define it. The international system is anarchic. The reality is that the liberal international order solely existed because America was motivated to underwrite it. America allowed itself to be constrained and (mostly) play by the same rules as anyone else in the system. And for a variety of reasons that are too long and complex to comprehensively detail here, America has lost that motivation.

Trump is engaging in the power politics that Russia and China never abandoned even after being invited into the liberal international order. What does an America motivated by power politics try to accomplish in the next few years?

• Consider America’s claims to Greenland and the Panama Canal as the mirror image of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s efforts to build a geostrategic buffer in Eastern Europe. America must secure critical minerals and its supply chains to maintain its relative power advantage.

• Canadian sovereignty is genuinely under threat. America doesn’t have to get all of Canada all at once. It may start by enticing the Prairie Provinces and fanning Quebec independence. It might demand the Northern Territories that sit between Greenland and Alaska. After that, Canada will essentially cease to exist whether the remaining provinces want to join the United States or not, though they would have a strong economic incentive to do so, either as states or territories.

• The security logic behind annexing Greenland and taking back the Panama Canal probably also applies to Iceland. Perhaps Iceland retains its sovereignty, but it will not have even the semblance of an independent foreign policy.

• Trump may decide annexing more of Mexico makes sense – in particular, the strip between the southern border and the Gulf of California which is only about 50 miles wide at its narrowest point. Bearing in mind that Mexico is likely not going to be eager to cooperate with its northern neighbor any longer, America will arguably need this territory to manage even basic security problems like drug and human trafficking on the Pacific coast. While the northern part of the gulf is too shallow to be economically useful for shipping, it could host a new facility for the US Coast Guard to combat transnational criminal organizations.

• Trump may decide America needs a more muscular presence in South America to deal with threats that emerge from Venezuela, guard against left-wing dictatorships, and counter China’s efforts to influence the region and cause problems for the US in its own hemisphere. Looking outside of the Americas, Trump may assert American influence in the Pacific, where China is encroaching. The Solomon Islands recently signed a security agreement with China that is unacceptable to the United States, so the US may have to either force Solomon Islands into a new agreement or surround it with new facilities in neighboring territories that render China’s military advantage there ineffective.

• Perhaps America will take territory in West Africa to counter China’s reported attempts to establish a naval base that could threaten the East Coast of the United States.

I am not advocating for these policies. (My personal preference would be to see a reconstituted-but-narrow liberal international order that kicks out cheaters and freeloaders.) Good analysis considers the facts as they are, indifferent to the vision of the world we want. If America embraces power politics, these are logical outcomes in the next 3 to 5 years.

There is nothing the targets of such a policy can do to stop America once it sets off down this path. There is no higher power to appeal to in the international system. In its entire history, America has either been a secondary power or a superpower acting predominantly under liberal international rules. For the first time, America will be the most powerful state in the system and completely unrestrained. Adversaries will have to reckon with that uncomfortable new reality and make difficult choices about how to cope.