America Unleashed

The first few weeks of the second Trump administration have signaled a radical departure from the post-Cold War consensus. We are moving from an era of "liberal internationalism" to one of naked power politics. The guiding principle seems to be: America has the power, and it will use it to extract better terms from friends and foes alike.

This "America Unleashed" scenario has profound implications for global markets and geopolitics. It suggests a rejection of multilateral constraints and a preference for bilateral deal-making where America's size leverage is maximized. We are seeing early signs of this in the aggressive posturing on trade tariffs—not just against China, but against traditional allies in Europe and North America.

The End of the "Free Ride"

The core grievance driving this shift is the belief that the US has been subsidizing the global security order to its own economic detriment. The new administration aims to "re-price" the security guarantee. Allies will be asked to pay more—either in direct defense spending (NATO's 2%) or through trade concessions that favor American industry. The implicit threat is withdrawal: if the price isn't met, America goes home.

Maximum Pressure on Adversaries

For adversaries like China and Iran, "America Unleashed" means the removal of guardrails. The administration is likely to use every tool of economic statecraft—sanctions, export controls, capital restraints—without worrying about the collateral damage to the global trading system. The goal is no longer "management" of competition but "victory." This raises the risk of escalation significantly, as backed-into-a-corner regimes may lash out asymmetrically.

The Domestic Energy Play

A key pillar of this strategy is energy dominance. By unleashing domestic oil and gas production, the US aims to insulate its economy from global price shocks while wielding energy exports as a geopolitical lever. This undermines the leverage of traditional petrostates and gives the US a freer hand in the Middle East and Russia.

What it Means for Business

For multinational corporations, this is a dangerous new world. The "neutral global marketplace" is dead. Supply chains will need to be bifurcated or effectively "Americanized." Companies will face increasing pressure to pick a side. Compliance costs will soar as the web of sanctions and tariffs grows more complex. But for those aligned with US industrial policy—defense, energy, domestic manufacturing—the wind is at their backs.

We are entering a volatile period of re-alignment. The old rules are gone, and the new ones are being written in real-time by an unconstrained American hegemon.