Radiant Geopolitical Risk Index
Measuring global risk. So you don't have to guess.
A single, daily number that quantifies global geopolitical instability — built on 600+ primary sources, five risk dimensions, and plain-English analysis.
77.6
Scale
0 – 100
Global risk elevated as crisis probability and trade disruption pressures intensify
Updated Feb 28, 2026
The RGRI updates once daily. New developments may not be reflected for up to 24 hours.
Index Trend
Current Assessment
The Radiant Geopolitical Risk Index stands at an elevated level, driven primarily by rising crisis risk and widening trade disruption. Financial crisis probability indicators have climbed to their highest level in the index's tracking period, fueled by sovereign debt pressures, currency volatility in emerging markets, and banking sector stress signals. Trade disruption is compounding as retaliatory tariff signals emerge from multiple trading blocs and export controls on critical technologies expand. Conflict and security risks remain persistently high, with active theaters straining international mediation capacity and limited progress in ceasefire negotiations. Political instability is elevated across several G20 economies as election cycles generate policy uncertainty and cost-of-living pressures fuel protest activity. Economic stress indicators, while lower than other dimensions, are trending upward as sovereign credit conditions tighten. Risk managers should pay particular attention to the interaction between crisis risk and trade disruption, as these two components are showing increasing correlation.
The upward trend in crisis risk and trade disruption suggests the composite score may continue to rise in the near term. Watch for contagion between sovereign debt pressures and trade policy escalation.
Source: Radiant Geopolitical Risk Index. Updated daily.
Five dimensions of risk
The RGRI decomposes global instability into five weighted sub-indices, each tracking a distinct category of geopolitical risk.
Crisis Risk
Weight: 25%
Financial crisis probability across banking, currency, sovereign debt, inflation, and stock market dimensions.
Conflict & Security
Weight: 25%
Bilateral conflict probability and active crisis escalation severity across global theaters.
Political Instability
Weight: 20%
Domestic political risk driven by governance quality, protest activity, and institutional fragility.
Trade Disruption
Weight: 15%
Trade flow anomaly detection and bilateral disruption forecasts across major trading blocs.
Economic Stress
Weight: 15%
Sovereign credit default risk and macroeconomic regime classification across key economies.
How the RGRI works
Three steps from raw intelligence to actionable insight.
01
Collect
We continuously ingest data from 600+ primary sources — government gazettes, regulatory filings, conflict monitors, trade databases, and official communications across 30+ jurisdictions.
02
Quantify
Proprietary models evaluate each signal across five dimensions of geopolitical risk, weighting for severity, velocity, and cross-domain correlation to produce a single composite score.
03
Contextualize
Every daily reading is paired with a plain-English assessment that explains what's driving the number, which risks are escalating, and what to watch — so you never see a number without context.
Why the RGRI
Updated daily, not quarterly
Geopolitical risk moves fast. The RGRI is recalculated every day so your risk picture is never stale.
Five-dimensional
A single number backed by five weighted sub-indices — so you can see what's driving the headline figure.
Plain-English analysis
Every reading comes with a written assessment. No raw numbers without context, ever.
Source-transparent
Built on 600+ primary sources with full methodology disclosure. Audit the inputs, not just the output.
Proprietary models
Purpose-built quantification models, not repurposed sentiment analysis or keyword counting.
Who uses the RGRI
Journalists & Editors
Cite a credible, daily-updated risk index to ground your coverage with quantitative context — no paywall, no jargon.
Analysts & Researchers
Track geopolitical risk trends over time, decompose drivers across five dimensions, and benchmark against historical periods.
Risk Managers
Integrate a daily risk signal into portfolio oversight, supply chain monitoring, and board-level risk reporting.
Frequently asked questions
The Radiant Geopolitical Risk Index quantifies global geopolitical instability on a 0-100 scale across five dimensions: crisis risk, conflict & security, political instability, trade disruption, and economic stress. Higher values indicate greater risk.
The RGRI is recalculated once daily at 06:00 UTC. Each update includes a fresh composite score, updated sub-index values for all five components, and a plain-English assessment explaining what's driving the number. It is not a real-time metric — new developments may not be reflected for up to 24 hours.
The index is built on 600+ primary sources including government gazettes, regulatory filings, conflict monitors, trade databases, official diplomatic communications, central bank publications, and parliamentary records across 30+ jurisdictions.
Most geopolitical risk indices are updated quarterly, rely on survey data, or use simple keyword counting. The RGRI is updated daily, uses proprietary quantification models across five weighted dimensions, and always pairs its reading with a plain-English assessment. It's also source-transparent — you can audit the inputs.
Yes. The RGRI is designed to be citable. Use: "Radiant Geopolitical Risk Index, [date], Radiant Intel." We encourage citation in media coverage, research papers, risk reports, and board materials.
Country-level and regional sub-indices are on our roadmap. The current global composite provides a macro-level signal. Contact us if country-level granularity is a priority for your use case.
Historical data is available to Radiant Intel subscribers. The public page shows up to 90 days of trend data. Full historical access, API integration, and data exports are available on paid plans.
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