US Leadership in Artificial Intelligence Can Shape the 21st Century Global Order

Over the past three decades, U.S. administrations from both parties have centered their economic foreign policy on the proposition that greater trade with the world would deliver inclusive and shared growth to the United States and its allies. However, recent economic trends challenge this consensus. The United States has lost 5 million manufacturing jobs since 2000, and from 1990-2021 the country accrued nearly $15 trillion in trade deficits. While many economists disagree that trade deficits equate to lost wealth, it is difficult to see how the U.S. can sustain large-scale deficits over the long term, particularly now that growth is slowing and interest rates are high and likely to remain elevated, at least relative to their levels over the past 15 years.

In this new era, the United States has also established a new area of dominance: artificial intelligence. The rest of the world has viewed the AI boom in the U.S. with a mixture of awe, envy, and resentment. U.S. companies, universities, and research labs (and their affiliates in allied countries) demonstrate global leadership in AI models, research, cloud computing, and venture capital. The value of U.S. venture capital investments in AI start-ups exceeds that of the rest of the world combined. AI is the next driver of global growth – and the United States has an enviable head start.

The value of U.S. venture capital investments in AI start-ups exceeds that of the rest of the world combined. Now is the time for U.S. foreign policy to pivot away from the trade paradigm toward AI diffusion. That is, U.S. foreign policy interests are advanced in a world where other countries adopt U.S.-led AI ecosystems because the economic gains of the 21st century will accrue primarily to those countries that are most proficient in deploying AI to enhance productivity. The AI diffusion paradigm reflects the reality that U.S. global economic leadership no longer derives from its ability to offer trade access to its consumer market; it instead derives from innovation.

The United States has an opportunity to shape the global order by building new partnerships and strengthening old ones centered around this next engine of growth. U.S. officials should communicate that there is a path to AI-driven growth for any country in the world that embraces open research, open markets, and open societies – but only through partnership with the United States and its allies. U.S. partners will benefit from AI diffusion as companies in those countries adopt U.S. AI services delivered through the cloud. Those services will be delivered at a variety of cost points to ensure every U.S. partner reaps the productivity dividend. Conversely, U.S. adversaries that seek to steal U.S. intellectual property and use AI for nefarious purposes should expect to be cut off from these ecosystems to the greatest extent possible.

This approach will complement the existing work of U.S. foreign policy officials attempting to manage the risks and benefits of AI through new rules, norms, and standards. The Biden administration has led conversations on AI governance through the G-7 Hiroshima Process, the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council, and new dialogues such as the AUKUS advanced capabilities pillar. The administration also leads the world in promoting AI research safety and security, as it demonstrated with the release of the AI Risk Management Framework, and through its commitment to the OECD Principles for AI Stewardship.

All these elements form parts of a comprehensive AI strategy. But so far, the U.S. has not explicitly linked its technology leadership to its global strategic goals. That should change.