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China’s currency on the international horizon
Why renminbi internationalisation depends less on geopolitical grievance than on whether China can make the currency a credible store of value without surrendering capital control.
Winning the AI Competition: Why U.S. Chip Export Controls Need a Strategic Upgrade
The controls imposed friction but did not produce the strategic outcome policymakers promised. Five findings explain why, and what should replace the current approach.
Strait of Hormuz Scenario Analysis
A computable general equilibrium model simulates how energy shocks in the Strait of Hormuz ripple through global supply chains and trading relationships.
AI, China, and Leverage
Chip export controls have eroded American leverage. A strategy for weaponized interdependence.
America's real AI advantage is in ecosystems
American AI policy must end a myopic fixation with chips. Ecosystem dominance—controlling the rails—is the better goal for national power.
The Illusion of Insight
Why "Deep Research" models collapse under the weight of their own vagueness, and why enterprise users need structured insight, not summaries.
America should embrace weaponized interdependence
The more Washington tightens export controls, the more it eliminates the leverage it might brandish in a real crisis. A strategy for the semiconductor age.
Introducing Radiant Intel
An agentic artificial intelligence platform that brings you the expertise of a top-tier risk team. Reconnecting decision makers with the primary source.
Is Deep Research amazing or worthless?
It's great at processing language, but lacks the motivation, instinct, and persistence required for genuine intelligence work.
America Unleashed
What does a world look like in which American power reigns supreme? Analyzing the potential shifts in a second Trump term.
The Empire Strikes Back
Deepseek-1.5B proves that Chinese AI researchers have more ingenuity than US policymakers give them credit for. Smaller is sometimes smarter.
To err is human
To really foul things up requires a communist dictatorship. The Chinese government has made significant errors in its handling of TikTok.
Strategic Misalignments in Semiconductors
Why U.S. export controls might be the single greatest policy tailwind for China's AI capability, and how to fix the strategy.
UK AI Summit Debrief Part 2
A look at the initiatives participating countries have taken following the summit and critical AI governance questions that remain for the future.
UK AI Summit Debrief Part 1
The UK AI Summit sought global consensus on frontier AI misuse. This commentary summarizes the summit discussion around each risk category.
Four Lessons from Historical Tech Regulation
Entering the age of AI, there is much to gain in looking back at how technology decisions from the past shape current AI policymaking.
US Leadership in AI
The U.S. can no longer rely on trade incentives to attract partners. Instead, foreign policy should center on its dominant position in AI.
Managing Existential Risk
Balancing innovation and risk in the AI landscape poses a challenge for policymakers as they aim to harness transformative benefits while mitigating extinction risks.