Hodag Capital
A public paper macro fund for showing the work.
Hodag Global Macro Paper Fund converts Radiant Intel research into documented theses, rule-checked paper trades, and a public ledger. It is fictional, paper-only, and not investment advice.
NAV
$1,000,000
Cash
76.00%
P&L
$0
Drawdown
0.00%
Week
n/a
Month
n/a
Data Publication Status
Hodag uses free EOD market data internally for paper accounting. Raw vendor prices are not republished when source terms restrict display; the page shows derived paper-fund metrics instead.
Current Book
Holdings, cash, exposure, and marks
Every position on the page traces back to a thesis, a source, or an explicit rule. Raw vendor marks may be redacted, but derived NAV, P&L, exposure, and rule decisions remain visible.
| Holding | Role | Qty | Mark | Value | Weight | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USO United States Oil Fund | Oil price exposure | Redacted | Redacted Raw mark not republished | +$120,000 | 12.00% | $0 |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | Gold safe-haven exposure | Redacted | Redacted Raw mark not republished | +$100,000 | 10.00% | $0 |
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | Broad US equity beta and risk appetite | Redacted | Redacted Raw mark not republished | -$80,000 | -8.00% | $0 |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | US dollar exposure | Redacted | Redacted Raw mark not republished | +$100,000 | 10.00% | $0 |
commodities
22.00%
fx_proxy
10.00%
equities
-8.00%
Cash
$760,000
Research To Position
Why the book owns what it owns
The fund does not hide behind generic model output. Each active thesis carries a theme, horizon, confidence score, invalidation conditions, and source trail.
long USO
Gulf energy disruption tail risk
The Hormuz scenario work keeps oil disruption risk visible even when baseline macro data are calm; a modest paper oil sleeve preserves upside to a supply-risk repricing.
Risks
- Oil demand shock overwhelms supply-risk premium
- Paper ETF roll costs dilute spot exposure
Invalidation
- Sustained de-escalation in Gulf shipping risk
- Oil breaks lower while disruption probabilities remain stable
long GLD
Geopolitical tail-risk hedge
Energy disruption scenarios argue for a visible convex hedge; gold is the cleanest liquid sleeve when geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty rise together.
Risks
- Real yields rise faster than geopolitical risk
- Dollar strength offsets safe-haven demand
Invalidation
- Gold fails to hold risk-off bid during a confirmed geopolitical shock
short SPY
Risk appetite vulnerable to energy shock
If Gulf energy risk reprices, broad US equity beta is a cleaner paper hedge than single-name selection; keep the short small because the CGE work does not imply a US GDP shock.
Risks
- US equities look through the shock
- Alternative producers benefit enough to cushion index beta
Invalidation
- SPY rallies on widening energy stress and credit spreads remain contained
long UUP
Dollar reserve-status resilience
The RMB piece weakens the near-term de-dollarization thesis; the paper book keeps a modest long dollar proxy while the dollar system retains structural advantages.
Risks
- US fiscal stress dominates RMB frictions
- Policy shifts make offshore RMB holding more attractive
Invalidation
- Clear evidence that RMB assets gain durable store-of-value adoption without capital-account opening
Decision Tape
Filled trades, rejected trades, and no-trades
Rejected trades are part of the public record. Weak signals, missing citations, stale data, and rule breaches should show up here instead of disappearing.
TLT
HOLD
Duration could hedge growth disappointment, but the launch signal is below confidence threshold and lacks a public source trail.
Rule result: no cited Radiant research source
Thesis: Possible duration ballast
No public source link
No fill
8.00%
HYG
HOLD
Credit risk belongs in the fund universe, but the first launch signal is too weak to short high yield honestly.
Rule result: no cited Radiant research source
Thesis: Credit risk not yet actionable
No public source link
No fill
-7.00%
USO
BUY
The Hormuz scenario work keeps oil disruption risk visible even when baseline macro data are calm; a modest paper oil sleeve preserves upside to a supply-risk repricing.
Rule result: paper order filled at supplied market mark
Thesis: Gulf energy disruption tail risk
$120,000
12.00%
GLD
BUY
Energy disruption scenarios argue for a visible convex hedge; gold is the cleanest liquid sleeve when geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty rise together.
Rule result: paper order filled at supplied market mark
Thesis: Geopolitical tail-risk hedge
$100,000
10.00%
SPY
SELL
If Gulf energy risk reprices, broad US equity beta is a cleaner paper hedge than single-name selection; keep the short small because the CGE work does not imply a US GDP shock.
Rule result: paper order filled at supplied market mark
Thesis: Risk appetite vulnerable to energy shock
$80,000
-8.00%
UUP
BUY
The RMB piece weakens the near-term de-dollarization thesis; the paper book keeps a modest long dollar proxy while the dollar system retains structural advantages.
Rule result: paper order filled at supplied market mark
Thesis: Dollar reserve-status resilience
$100,000
10.00%
Rules & Governance
One fund, one scoreboard, fixed rules
The initial mandate is deliberately narrow: liquid public-market instruments, transparent paper accounting, and repeatable weekly publishing.
Risk Limits
- Minimum signal confidence
- 55.00%
- Max single position
- 20.00%
- Max gross exposure
- 125.00%
- Max absolute net exposure
- 80.00%
- Minimum cash
- 10.00%
- Max price age
- 5 days
- Rebalance cadence
- Friday after market close
Approved Universe
Broad US equity beta and risk appetite
US growth equity risk appetite
US small-cap risk appetite
Long-duration US Treasury exposure
Intermediate-duration US Treasury exposure
Credit risk appetite
Investment-grade credit risk
Gold safe-haven exposure
Silver precious-metals exposure
Oil price exposure
Natural gas price exposure
Broad commodities exposure
US dollar exposure
Governance blocked 2 thesis signals
The launch run rejected duration and credit trades because the signals lacked a public Radiant source trail.
Weekly Archive
Latest public update
NAV is $1,000,000; cash is 76.00% of NAV; gross exposure is 40.00%.
Week ending May 13, 2026
Hodag Global Macro Paper Fund: public paper ledger update
Launch snapshot: no full weekly return is reported yet. Monthly return: not yet available.
Trades and rebalances
- BUY USO ($120,000) because The Hormuz scenario work keeps oil disruption risk visible even when baseline macro data are calm; a modest paper oil sleeve preserves upside to a supply-risk repricing.
- BUY GLD ($100,000) because Energy disruption scenarios argue for a visible convex hedge; gold is the cleanest liquid sleeve when geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty rise together.
- SELL SPY ($80,000) because If Gulf energy risk reprices, broad US equity beta is a cleaner paper hedge than single-name selection; keep the short small because the CGE work does not imply a US GDP shock.
- BUY UUP ($100,000) because The RMB piece weakens the near-term de-dollarization thesis; the paper book keeps a modest long dollar proxy while the dollar system retains structural advantages.
- NO TRADE in TLT: no cited Radiant research source.
- NO TRADE in HYG: no cited Radiant research source.
What worked
- No performance attribution is claimed until the fund has a recorded weekly mark.
What did not
- TLT was rejected: no cited Radiant research source.
- HYG was rejected: no cited Radiant research source.
X Draft
Friday thread generator
Generated from the same ledger, thesis, and decision data that powers this page.
Post 1
1/ Hodag Global Macro Paper Fund update (2026-05-13): since inception paper return 0.00%, drawdown 0.00%. Fictional paper fund. Not investment advice.
Post 2
2/ What we hold: USO long 12.00%; GLD long 10.00%; UUP long 10.00%; SPY short 8.00%; cash 76.00%.
Post 3
3/ Why long USO: The Hormuz scenario work keeps oil disruption risk visible even when baseline macro data are calm; a modest paper oil sleeve preserves upside to a supply-risk repricing.
Post 4
4/ Why long GLD: Energy disruption scenarios argue for a visible convex hedge; gold is the cleanest liquid sleeve when geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty rise together.
Post 5
5/ Why long UUP: The RMB piece weakens the near-term de-dollarization thesis; the paper book keeps a modest long dollar proxy while the dollar system retains structural advantages.
Post 6
6/ Why short SPY: If Gulf energy risk reprices, broad US equity beta is a cleaner paper hedge than single-name selection; keep the short small because the CGE work does not imply a US GDP shock.
Post 7
7/ What we sold/shorted: shorted SPY: If Gulf energy risk reprices, broad US equity beta is a cleaner paper hedge than single-name selection; keep the short small because the CGE work does not imply a US GDP shock.
Post 8
8/ Disclosure: Hodag Capital is a fictional paper fund powered by Radiant Intel research. No client money, no brokerage execution, no investment advice. Raw price feeds are not republished when restricted.
Hodag Capital is fictional and paper-only. The Hodag Global Macro Paper Fund trades only on paper, has no client capital, has no brokerage account, and is not investment advice. The public record should include bad calls, rejected trades, stale-data blocks, and periods where the model has no edge. This page is a demonstration of research-driven market reasoning, not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or short any security. Raw market-data marks are used internally for paper accounting and are not republished when the active source policy restricts display.